Tyrese Haliburton joins NBA's Top-10 most valuable players to the spread in midseason re-rank
Before the 2023-24 NBA season, I asked a panel of oddsmakers to rank their 69 most valuable players to the point spread. It was no surprise that league MVP Nikola Jokic was No. 1, but it was a bit surprising that he was the only player worth more than 5 points to the spread, and he was a full half-point more valuable than Joel Embiid at No. 2 (4.52 points ATS).
I recently followed up with four of the bookmakers to get an updated rating for all 69 players. The prompt was the same: “If a player wasn’t on the injury report and then was declared OUT for tonight’s game, how much would the line move?”
I gave oddsmakers the same list of 69 players and asked them to rank the point-spread value of each one. I then averaged the four values together to get to a final number for every player.
The answers rely on a variety of factors for oddsmakers, including:
- Strength of the backup at the position
- Relative strength of rest of the team (how many stars do they have?)
- Opponent
- Regular season vs. playoffs
- What new rotations may look like
- Strength of coach
The top five most valuable NBA players to the spread remained the same, but the gap shrunk considerably. And there was one very noticeable riser over the season's first 30 games: Tyrese Haliburton.
Here are the full rankings:
The Big Six + Haliburton
- Nikola Jokic, Nuggets (4.93 points ATS)
- Joel Embiid, 76ers (4.71)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks (4.55)
- Luka Doncic, Mavericks (4.48)
- Steph Curry, Warriors (4.17)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder (3.90)
- Tyrese Haliburton (3.58)
There's no question that Jokic remains the most valuable player in the NBA to the point spread, as every oddsmaker had him No. 1 or tied for first, but Embiid is closing the gap. The 76ers star (and current MVP favorite at sportsbooks) leads the NBA in scoring at 35.0 PPG and has helped Philadelphia to the No. 3 seed in the East, despite the James Harden drama.
The top six players remain the same as October, but Gilgeous-Alexander is now very close to being the sixth player worth above 4 points ATS; in October, he was at 3.67 points ATS. Gilgeous-Alexander has led the Thunder to an 19-9 start and he also leads the NBA in steals (2.8 per game) and is third in scoring (30.8 PPG).
"I stand by my original numbers for the most part," one oddsmaker told For The Win. "Doncic, Embiid and De'Aaron Fox are so valuable, I may have undersold them. In the East, Tyrese Maxey, Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Jalen Brunson, Bam Adebayo and Tyrese Haliburton are big movers."
The biggest riser is Haliburton, who was ranked 22nd in the October rankings, but now is up to seventh at 3.58 points ATS, just ahead of Kevin Durant (3.57). Haliburton has played at an All-NBA level, leading the Pacers to the NBA in-season tournament final and putting on a show in the semifinal against the Bucks. He leads the league in assists (12.2 APG).
One of the biggest fallers is Portland Trail Blazers rookie Scoot Henderson. Henderson was 57th (of 69) in the Oct. rankings at 1.35 points ATS, but fell all the way to 69th in this edition, at 0.56 points ATS. One bookmaker ranked him as having no value to the point spread.